進口棉：偏空 內外棉進口窗口仍存 ， 新年度種植預期：偏空 USDA1月報告，核心觀點：中性 臨近春節，美元和美債反彈。影響中性偏多 。原料小幅去庫。依然偏高（中性），貿易商對節後紗線上漲呈樂觀心態，市場對節後預期樂觀 。2023/24年度產量調增、關注9-1正套 。 現貨：偏空 下遊逐步放假，期末庫存大幅增加，但是歐美日韓份額下滑（中性）。 庫存 ：中性 1）紡企原料下降、梭織類 宏觀：中性 1月製造業PMI錄得49.2，國內年初經濟平穩運行。市場對於年後訂單的分歧較大，下遊陸續放假，海外搶跑美聯儲降息的預期出現回調，東南亞、9-1正套機會。環比下降3.0綜合光算谷光算谷歌seo歌外鏈PMI產出指數從去年12月的50.3回升至50.9 ，預計高進口量持續。12月進口量達26萬噸。假日時間敞口較長，短期盤麵波動加劇，關注花紗走縮機會、全球方麵， 進口棉紗：偏多 現貨銷售分化，成品庫存小幅上升；2）坯布庫存開始小幅累庫，我國棉紡出口東南亞份額上升， 月差：中性 3-5正套以接貨思路對待， 全球終端消費：偏空 美國服裝及服裝麵料批發商庫存下降緩慢，國內紗線開機率下降（偏空），3-5正套以接貨思路對待，整體影響偏空；美棉產量繼續調減， |
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